Friday 13 July 2007

A Swindle?

Finally saw the counter myth to the inconvenient truth - Mr Durkin’s Great Global Swindle certainly puts forward a convincing argument … to a point.  Basically, it's Durkin's graphs versus Gore's graphs - according to The Truth it's atmospheric carbon driving global temperatures and according to Durkin it's solar activity.  Both of these hypotheses have their proponents and both have their detractors and both have been put to significant scrutiny - in Mr Tony 'Lateline' Jones post documentary interview with the filmmaker he released the hounds with specific questions concerning the data samples that that Durkin used - he used a contentious interpretation of satellite data and he deliberately omitted the latest 20 years of solar activity-global temperature stats that ran completely counter to his argument.  In the end they just had to agree to disagree (I don't agree to that!  Neither do I!).  Where Durkin's film fails significantly is his proposal that the green movement has been hijacked by radical Marxists and that global warming believers are trying to hold back the developing world by denying them the ability to utilise fossil fuels.  Perhaps this is happening but that's one of the most significant problems with the greenhouse gas issue - it was created by the West in developing its economy and it's now being exacerbated by the developing world that's just trying to catch up.  The West is not denying its responsibility here and what it should be (and is, to some extent) is assisting the developing world to bypass the growing pains in creating a modern economy - don't bother building the infrastructure for a stepping stone landline telecommunications infrastructure and move straight into mobile world, don't develop older style coal power plants but move straight into clean coal, solar, wind or nuclear power generation (yes, it's nowhere near as simple as that but there's nobody in the West stating that the developing world doesn't have the right to live as we do).

Where the documentary really became interesting was in the panel discussion afterwards - a lot of passion and lively debate - with the best point being put forward by the business reps in that the issue is about managing the risk.  Even if human created global warming isn't true is that a risk we can take?  If it is, and we ignore it then we are basically suiciding the planet.  The audience questions were completely bizarre - of the dozen or so people who asked questions most made completely crazy comments and very few actually asked real answerable questions - notably one seemingly drunk man made a rant about Carbon 14 in coal (which, according to the Google is part of an argument that the Earth is very young and therefore the Biblical Creation myth is true), another hippy student who's doing three degrees including one in Astrophysics stated that Kepler proved that statistical analysis doesn't prove anything and someone else linked Global Warming Sceptics (or Believers, I can't remember which) to the Nazis.  Fun and games!

I for one am not completely convinced on the issue that human created greenhouse gases are causing an increase in global temperatures but what I am absolutely certain of is that human created pollution and environmental damage IS causing catastrophic damage to the world we live in.  We are polluting the air we breathe, we are destroying the habitats of countless species, over fishing the oceans, taking far more than our share of the commons that we share with the rest of Earth's inhabitants - we've only got one planet right now and if we want it to be able to provide for us for more than a few more generations we've got to change our relationship with it.  Now.

PS – Most passionate of the panel was David Koroly – Melbourne scientist and not someone who liked to be questioned on the facts when he could back ‘em up (he certainly seemed to have most of them on hand) - wouldn’t you know it, when going out for a little cigarello in the morning at IAG who should be sitting in the foyer yelling into his mobile phone factoids about 0.5C temp rises and something about scientists in the employ of the fossil fuel industry.  That man has got stamina.

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